The end of history?
In the early 1990s, as the Cold War receded into history, political theorists proclaimed the "end of history," suggesting a future dominated by liberal democratic values under a unipolar international system led by the United States. This period coincided with the rapid expansion of the Internet, which was envisioned as a tool to promote global connectivity.
However, the ensuing decades have seen a shift toward a multipolar world, with rising powers such as China and regional blocs asserting their influence. This shift has fragmented both cyberspace and the global economy, with nations prioritizing national security over global interests, resulting in a cyber landscape characterized by sovereignty and divergent norms.
Cyberspace, often perceived as an abstract concept, is actually grounded in a robust architecture that encompasses both physical and software infrastructure. This includes undersea cables, terrestrial networks, satellites, and data centers, alongside essential protocols like TCP/IP that facilitate data transfer.
This infrastructure is central to modern geopolitics, emphasizing that control over data and management of information flows are now as strategically important as territorial dominance was in previous centuries. Modern geopolitical strategies are increasingly focused on establishing, defending, and expanding digital domains as much as physical ones.
Two tigers cannot share the same mountain
This can be illustrated, for example, by contrasting international commitments such as the "Declaration for the Future of the Internet," signed by over 60 governments, including the U.S. and EU, which promotes a vision of an open and secure Internet. In contrast, China's State Council's "Jointly Build a Community with a Shared Future in Cyberspace" reflects an alternative vision emphasizing digital sovereignty and state control, indicating a global divide in cyberspace governance and Internet freedom.
The strategic competition between the U.S. and China also extends into the uncharted depths of the ocean, centering on the undersea fiber-optic cables that carry more than 95% of intercontinental Internet traffic. These cables are essential for everything from consumer transactions to government communications. Recently, both major American tech companies and Chinese state-owned enterprises have tightened their control over these assets.
The submarine cable industry is a niche but critical sector that relies on a limited global fleet capable of laying and maintaining these cables. However, this lack of expertise sometimes forces Western governments to rely on foreign powers such as China for essential repairs, creating potential security vulnerabilities. Notably, China has strategically emphasized its role in the “maintenance” aspect, seeking to position itself as an indispensable player in the ongoing operation and upkeep of this vital infrastructure.
At the heart of this competition are semiconductor microchips, which are central to both civilian and military technologies. China's strategy to dominate this essential industry underlines its broader economic and political ambitions to supplant the U.S. as hegemon in the Asia-Pacific region and establish its own “sphere of influence”. This strategic competition is demonstrated by the tensions over Taiwan, a key center of semiconductor manufacturing, where Beijing and Washington's interests are sharply at odds.
Strategic Competition in the Digital Age
Global cyber conflicts and the economic impacts associated with them are reshaping international relations in profound ways. As nations vie for control over critical internet infrastructure and data flows, cyberspace has become a new domain of strategic competition, paralleling traditional conflicts over maritime and land resources. The stakes are high, as control over AI technologies and the cyber realm carries significant implications for national security, military advantage, and technological edge.
Unfortunately, a fragmented international system and divided cyberspace hinder the global cooperation needed to tackle pressing challenges such as climate change and the governance of AI. When the world's nations are divided, their collective power to address these universal issues is significantly weakened. As another Chinese proverb wisely states: "A single tree does not make a forest.”
Join us in December in Frankfurt at our cyberevolution conference, where we will continue to discuss the cyber threat landscape and its economic impact.
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